EV - Expected Value
Level 3 - Lesson 5
What is Expected Value (EV)?
EV is the most important concept in poker. It's the average money you'll win or lose from a specific decision in the long run. Every decision in poker has an EV!
Basic Formula
EV = (Probability of Winning × Profit) - (Probability of Losing × Loss)
+EV = Profitable decision in the long run ✓
-EV = Losing decision in the long run ✗
0 EV = Neutral decision (no profit or loss)
Simple Example:
Simple bet: Coin flip
- If heads: win 100 chips
- If tails: lose 100 chips
- Cost: 0 (free)
Calculating EV:
EV = (50% × 100) - (50% × 100)
EV = 50 - 50 = 0
→ This is a fair bet (0 EV) - no profit or loss in the long run
Poker Examples
Example 1: Simple Call Decision
Situation:
- Pot: 200 chips
- Opponent bet: 100 chips
- You need to pay: 100 chips to call
- Your winning chance: 40%
Calculating EV:
When you win: gain 300 chips (pot + his bet)
When you lose: lose 100 chips (your call)
EV = (40% × 300) - (60% × 100)
EV = 120 - 60 = +60 chips
✓ +EV = Profitable call! In the long run you'll win 60 chips on average
Example 2: -EV Decision
Situation:
- Pot: 100 chips
- Opponent bet: 150 chips
- You need to pay: 150 chips to call
- Your winning chance: 25%
Calculating EV:
When you win: gain 250 chips
When you lose: lose 150 chips
EV = (25% × 250) - (75% × 150)
EV = 62.5 - 112.5 = -50 chips
✗ -EV = Fold! You'll lose 50 chips on average in the long run
Example 3: Bluff EV
Situation:
- Pot: 200 chips
- You want to bluff with bet: 100 chips
- Opponent fold chance: 60%
- If he calls and goes to showdown: your chance 20%
Calculating EV:
Scenario 1: He folds (60%) → win 200 chips
Scenario 2: He calls and you win (40% × 20% = 8%) → win 300
Scenario 3: He calls and you lose (40% × 80% = 32%) → lose 100
EV = (60% × 200) + (8% × 300) - (32% × 100)
EV = 120 + 24 - 32 = +112 chips
✓ Excellent +EV = Bluff immediately!
Why is EV More Important Than Immediate Results?
Poker is a long game - immediate results can be misleading!
Illustrative Example:
Decision A: +EV but you lost
You have AA, all-in everything vs KK. Your chance is 82%.
Flop comes with K and you lost everything.
✓ Correct decision! Even though you lost, this is a +EV decision and you'll win 8 out of 10 times.
Decision B: -EV but you won
You called a huge bet with gutshot (only 17%). Pot odds were terrible.
You hit the straight on river and won big pot!
✗ Wrong decision! Even though you won, this is a -EV decision and you'll lose in the long run.
Important Lesson:
Don't judge your decisions based on a single hand result. Focus on +EV, and results will come in the long run!
Advanced EV Applications
1. Comparing Multiple Options
When you have several options, always choose the one with highest +EV:
• Call: EV = +30 chips
• Raise: EV = +65 chips
→ Choose the raise!
2. Risk vs Reward
Sometimes small +EV isn't worth the big risk:
EV = +5 chips but risking 500 chips?
Maybe folding is better to preserve bankroll.
3. Meta-game & Image
Some small -EV decisions may be useful for improving your image:
Small losing bluff (-10 EV) may make opponents call you more later (+100 EV).
Challenges in Calculating EV
⚠ 1. Difficulty Determining Probabilities Accurately
What's the chance opponent folds? What's the chance your hand is best? Often we're guessing - that's why experience matters!
⚠ 2. Ignoring the Future
Calculating EV for current decision only may ignore what happens in future rounds (Implied Odds & Reverse Implied Odds).
⚠ 3. Human Factor
Against tilted or weak player, +EV may be higher than you calculate. Against pro, it may be lower.
Common Mistakes
❌ Judging a decision by one result: One hand means nothing!
❌ "I must recover my losses": This is -EV thinking. Each decision is independent!
❌ Ignoring -EV because of "gut feeling": Math doesn't lie
❌ Only focusing on +EV and ignoring its size: +1 EV isn't like +100 EV
القاعدة الذهبية
"اتخذ قرارات +EV دائماً، وتجاهل النتائج الفورية. النتائج ستعتني بنفسها على المدى الطويل."
لاعبو البوكر الفائزون لا يحكمون على أنفسهم بنتائج جلسة واحدة. يحكمون على أنفسهم بجودة قراراتهم.
إذا اتخذت قرارات +EV باستمرار، أنت لاعب فائز - حتى لو خسرت اليوم!